Jackson Flora
One hundred miles per hour on the fastball. A new curveball and changeup added this fall. Taking over as ace after Tyler Bremner went No. 2 overall. Flora’s Opening Weekend against a ranked opponent was the kind of Friday night that climbs draft boards.
The Opening Statement
Flora’s Week 1 line against No. 20 Southern Miss deserves its own paragraph: 6 innings, 0 runs, 3 hits, with the fastball touching 100 mph. Southern Miss won the series — Joey Urban’s 8th-inning 2-run blast completed a comeback Saturday, and Matt Russo walked it off on Sunday — but Flora put himself on the national map in a way that Friday-night starters dream about. The Golden Eagles had no answer for his fastball, and the new secondaries gave hitters a problem they hadn’t prepared for: a pitcher who could overpower them and change speeds.
This is the UCSB rotation post-Bremner. Tyler Bremner went No. 2 overall to the Angels in the 2025 draft, leaving the Gauchos ace role to Flora. That kind of succession plan either produces a step backward or reveals a pitcher who was always capable of being the guy. One start is a small sample, but the quality of the opponent and the efficiency of the performance suggest the second scenario. Flora didn’t just replace Bremner’s innings. He announced his own version of what UCSB’s Friday night looks like.
The Arsenal: Four Pitches Deep
The scouting report on Flora coming into 2026 was simple: elite fastball, elite sweeper, and not much else. That two-pitch profile is enough to dominate in college baseball — Bremner proved it. But it caps your draft ceiling because MLB hitters can sit on two pitches and wait for one of them. The draft market pays for a third pitch, and it pays more for a fourth.
Flora added both this fall. The new curveball has 12-6 shape — a completely different look from the sweeper’s horizontal break. Against Southern Miss, it gave right-handed hitters a pitch they had to respect in the lower half of the zone, which opened up the fastball up and the sweeper away. The changeup is still developing, with fading action that projects as average to above-average once the feel matures. Neither secondary is a finished product. But they don’t need to be in February — they need to exist, and they need to show flashes. Both conditions are met.
The fastball remains the carrying tool. Triple digits with ride and carry — the kind of velocity that makes even good college hitters late on location pitches. The sweeper is the putaway, and it was devastating against Southern Miss: hitters chased it off the plate because the fastball’s plane made the sweeper look hittable until it wasn’t. That tunneling effect is what separates a thrower from a pitcher, and Flora is on the pitcher side of that line.
BSI Scouting Grades (20–80 Scale)
Based on Week 1 start + fall development reports. Early evaluation — sample size is one start.
The Draft Question: Top 5 or Top 15?
At No. 14 on MLB Pipeline, Flora is the third-highest college arm in the 2026 class behind Florida’s Liam Peterson (No. 9) and a handful of prep pitchers. But Pipeline rankings in February are based on fall reports and pre-season projections. In-season performance moves the board — and one elite Friday start against a ranked team with new secondaries flashing is the kind of data point that triggers re-evaluation.
The upside case is compelling: a right-hander with a 100 mph fastball, an elite sweeper, and two developing secondaries who’s shown the willingness and ability to expand his arsenal. That profile, if the new pitches mature, projects as a first-round arm with No. 2 starter upside. The Bremner comparison is the floor — UCSB already produced a No. 2 overall pick from this program, and Flora was the guy learning behind him. If Flora outperforms his draft ranking through the spring, the narrative writes itself.
The risk is the same risk every pitcher carries with new secondaries: feel comes and goes, and the pitch that looked sharp in a February Friday start might disappear in a May conference series when the adrenaline is different and the lineup has an advance report. Peterson’s Opening Day meltdown at Florida — 5 walks, didn’t survive the fourth — is the reminder that February and May are different sports. Flora’s development arc will be measured start-to-start, and the SEC-caliber opponents on UCSB’s schedule (however few they face) will tell us more than the first line in the box score.
One start. That’s the sample. And that’s the honest caveat before everything else: Flora’s 2026 evaluation is built on a single Friday night against Southern Miss and the fall development reports that preceded it. The fastball velocity is confirmed. The sweeper is confirmed. The new pitches exist. Everything beyond that is projection.
What makes Flora worth watching — and worth this profile at No. 14 rather than waiting for a larger sample — is the trajectory. A pitcher who adds two pitches in one offseason and immediately deploys them against a ranked opponent isn’t just adding tools. He’s signaling that he understands what the next level requires and is willing to go through the uncomfortable process of throwing pitches he doesn’t fully command yet to develop them for when he will. That’s the kind of development bet that moves draft boards. If the curveball and changeup show continued progress through March, Flora’s No. 14 ranking is the floor, not the ceiling.