The Offseason That Reshuffled Everything
Kyle Tucker broke the AAV record. The Mets gutted their roster and rebuilt it around Juan Soto. The Cardinals tore it all down. Robot umpires finally arrived. And the Dodgers — already the Dodgers — added the best available bat in free agency to a lineup returning Shohei Ohtani as a two-way player. Six divisions. Thirty teams. One October. Here’s how it looks.
The 2025–26 offseason moved more money, more players, and more managers than any winter in recent memory. Nine teams changed skippers — the largest coaching turnover in decades, with six of the nine hires being first-time MLB managers. Kyle Tucker signed a four-year, $240 million deal with the Dodgers at $60 million AAV, the highest average annual value in baseball history. The Mets, one year into Juan Soto’s $765 million contract, overhauled nearly every position around him: out went Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz, and Jeff McNeil; in came Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Luis Robert Jr., Marcus Semien, and Devin Williams. The Cardinals, under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, shipped Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Brendan Donovan for prospects and salary relief — a fire sale from a franchise that hasn’t deliberately rebuilt in a generation.
And underneath the transactions, a structural change arrived that will alter every game from March through October. MLB approved the Automated Ball-Strike challenge system — robot umpires, in practice — giving each team two challenges per game to appeal ball-and-strike calls to a tracking system. Human umpires still make every initial call. But for the first time, those calls carry an appeal mechanism backed by data rather than tradition. Minor-league testing showed 72% of fans reporting a positive impact. The 2026 season isn’t just new rosters on old fields. It’s a different game in several fundamental ways.
NL West: The Dodgers Problem
PECOTA projects the Dodgers at 103.8 wins. That number deserves a beat of silence. No other team in baseball is projected above 94. The gap between Los Angeles and the second-best projected team in the National League is wider than the gap between second and tenth. The Dodgers own 98.1% division odds and somewhere between 23% and 28% World Series odds depending on the model — and those numbers existed before Kyle Tucker signed for $60 million per year.
Tucker hit .266/.377/.464 with 22 home runs and 25 stolen bases for the Cubs in 2025 — a 143 OPS+ season that confirmed he was the best available free agent bat. The Dodgers paid accordingly. The $60M AAV broke records, and Jeff Passan reported that the deal “might have been the final blow for labor peace” between MLB and the MLBPA heading into CBA negotiations. But the Dodgers aren’t thinking about labor peace. They’re thinking about Shohei Ohtani throwing 99 mph in live batting practice this spring — striking out Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in the process — and the fact that the version of Ohtani they signed for $700 million has never actually played a full season in Los Angeles as a two-way player. This is the year they get the full version: pitcher and DH, the player who was supposed to arrive in 2024 but lost the pitching half to Tommy John. Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior confirmed it: “This year, yeah, the full version.”
The rest of the NL West is competing for second place, and that competition produced the offseason’s most interesting managerial hire. The Giants named Tony Vitello — the first college baseball coach ever hired directly to manage an MLB team. Vitello built Tennessee into a national power, reaching the College World Series and producing a pipeline of professional talent. Whether that translates to managing a 162-game season with a roster built around Luis Arraez is the experiment San Francisco is running. ZiPS projects the Giants at 84 wins, which would make them a credible second-place team in a division the Dodgers have locked down. The Padres (Craig Stammen managing, projecting around 80 wins), Diamondbacks (added Arenado from the Cardinals fire sale), and Rockies (Warren Schaeffer made permanent after an interim stint) are all somewhere between 63 and 82 projected wins. The NL West is a one-team division unless something structural breaks in Dodger Stadium.
AL East: Four Teams, One October
The AL East has four teams projected at or near 90 wins. ZiPS puts the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox all at approximately 90, with the Orioles close behind at 83–85. That compression is almost unprecedented — and it means at least one 85-plus-win team is staying home in October. The division isn’t just competitive. It’s a filter. Surviving it is a credential.
The Yankees lost Juan Soto to the Mets after the 2024 season — the $765 million man chose Queens over the Bronx — and responded by re-signing Cody Bellinger to a five-year, $162.5 million deal. Bellinger hit .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs and 5.1 WAR in 2025, and he gives the lineup a left-handed complement to Aaron Judge that the Yankees needed. It’s not Soto. Nothing is Soto. But Bellinger at $32.5M AAV is a credible anchor in a lineup that still has Judge producing at a generational level.
The Blue Jays came off an ALCS appearance powered by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who hit .397 with 8 home runs and a 1.289 OPS across 18 playoff games to win ALCS MVP. Toronto locked him up with a $500 million, 14-year extension and added Kazuma Okamoto from NPB on a four-year, $60 million deal. Okamoto hit .322 with 15 home runs in Japan and will play first base alongside Guerrero at third. The Jays have the most obvious window in the division — Guerrero is 27, the roster is built around him, and last October proved he can carry a lineup when the variance tightens.
The Red Sox were the offseason’s most aggressive acquirers via trade. They picked up Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras from the Cardinals fire sale, signed Ranger Suarez to a five-year, $130 million deal, and acquired Caleb Durbin from the Brewers and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. Boston built the kind of offseason that either looks brilliant in retrospect or looks like a team that acquired complementary pieces without a cornerstone. The rotation — Suarez, Gray, and whoever else emerges — is legitimate. The question is whether the lineup produces enough to support it.
The Orioles signed Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million deal and added Chris Bassitt on a one-year, $18.5 million contract. Baltimore bounces back from a disappointing 75–87 in 2025 with new manager Craig Albernaz and a lineup anchored by Alonso’s power — 38 home runs and 126 RBI last season. FanGraphs gives them 55% playoff odds, which feels about right: they have the talent to contend and the track record of a team that just went backwards when it was supposed to take the next step.
The Rays are rebuilding. Tampa acquired pieces in the three-team Donovan deal but projects in the low-to-mid 70s. The division has four real teams. Tampa isn’t one of them this year.
NL East: The Mets’ Gamble
What the Mets did this offseason doesn’t have a clean precedent. One year after signing Juan Soto for $765 million, they replaced nearly every other starter on the roster. The departures — Alonso, Nimmo, Diaz, McNeil — were familiar names who defined the Mets’ identity during their competitive window. The arrivals — Bo Bichette (three-year, $126 million, moving to third base), Freddy Peralta (traded from Milwaukee for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat), Luis Robert Jr. (acquired from the White Sox), Marcus Semien (from the Rangers for Nimmo), Devin Williams (three-year, $51 million to close), and Jorge Polanco — are a mix of proven production and bet-on-upside gambles.
The biggest swing is Robert, who was an All-Star in 2023 (.264/.315/.542, 38 HR) but hit .223 with a .661 OPS in an injury-shortened 2025. If Robert is healthy and locked in, the Mets’ lineup — Soto, Bichette, Robert, Semien, with Lindor at short — is as deep as any in the National League. If Robert is the 2025 version, the Mets are paying premium money for a lineup that has a significant hole. By any reasonable projection model, the Mets are the highest-variance team in baseball. ZiPS projects them at 89 wins, PECOTA around 90. But the error bars stretch from 82 to 97 depending on how the gambles land.
The Braves are PECOTA’s NL East pick at 92 wins. New manager Walt Weiss was promoted from eight years as bench coach, the kind of continuity move a team makes when the infrastructure is sound and the clubhouse culture is worth protecting. Atlanta didn’t have a splashy offseason. They didn’t need one. The rotation and lineup were already built.
The Phillies re-signed Kyle Schwarber to a five-year, $150 million deal after he finished second in NL MVP voting — 56 home runs and 132 RBI in 2025, with a .240/.365/.563 slash line. Philadelphia’s strategy is status quo: run it back with the same core, trust the roster depth, and bet that continuity beats volatility. ZiPS has them at 91 wins, which would win most divisions. The risk, as ESPN noted, is “running it back one too many times.” This is the third consecutive year the Phillies have entered the season as a contender without making a significant structural change. At some point, the window stops being open and starts being a narrative.
AL Central: The Tigers’ Moment
Detroit signed Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million contract — $38.3 million AAV, a record for a left-handed pitcher — and then brought Justin Verlander back to the organization that drafted him No. 2 overall in 2004 on a one-year, $13 million deal. Verlander joins Valdez and Tarik Skubal in a rotation that has three arms capable of pitching Game 1 in October. The Tigers have made the postseason in two straight years and PECOTA projects them at 83.9 wins — half a game behind the Royals for the division. What’s different about Detroit in 2026 is the lineup. Kevin McGonigle, the minor-league MVP who hit .308/.410/.512 with more walks than strikeouts, is trending toward the Opening Day roster at shortstop. If McGonigle is the real thing, the Tigers have a lineup that matches the rotation for the first time in this competitive window.
The Royals are PECOTA’s projected division champ at 84.4 wins. Kansas City doesn’t have a blockbuster addition — their story is continuity and a roster that overperformed projections in 2025 and now has those projections catching up to the results. The Twins hired Derek Shelton as manager and project around 79 wins — watchable but not threatening. Minnesota traded ten players at the 2025 deadline; the rebuild is still in its early stages.
The Guardians are the most interesting decline story in the division. Cleveland won the AL Central in 2025 and now projects at 75.8 wins after losing Josh Naylor in free agency and watching the core age another year. PECOTA’s projected drop — from division champ to fourth place — is aggressive, but it reflects a roster that relied on overperformance rather than top-end talent. The White Sox moved Luis Robert Jr. and continue rebuilding; they project in the mid-60s. The AL Central has two real contenders, one team treading water, and two teams building for a different year.
NL Central: Three Stories in One Division
The Cubs signed Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million deal — the largest in franchise history, with a full no-trade clause. Bregman gives Chicago a third baseman who has played in the postseason every year of his career and brings a competitive infrastructure that the Cubs’ younger players haven’t experienced. FanGraphs gives the Cubs 64% playoff odds, and ZiPS projects them at 86 wins. The NL Central has been a division without a dominant team for three years running. The Cubs are betting that Bregman’s presence — not just his production, but his presence — tips the balance.
The Pirates are the division’s most interesting long-term story. Konnor Griffin, the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball, is in major-league camp this spring. Manager Don Kelly said he’s unlikely to make the Opening Day roster — the plan is Double-A to start — but FanGraphs’ projections for Pittsburgh “sent shockwaves” when they factored in Griffin’s mid-season arrival and the development of the existing young core. Pittsburgh projects at 80–82 wins, which doesn’t sound like a threat until you realize that a full year of Griffin plus maturation from the pitching staff could push that number higher. The Pirates aren’t contending today. They might be contending in August.
The Cardinals tore it all down. Under Chaim Bloom’s direction, St. Louis traded Arenado to the Diamondbacks, sent Gray and Contreras to the Red Sox, and shipped Donovan to the Mariners in a three-team deal. The franchise ate approximately $59 million in salary across these trades to accelerate the rebuild. What they got in return, beyond prospects, was a path to playing time for JJ Wetherholt, the former first-round pick who had been blocked at every position by veteran contracts. Wetherholt is the reason the teardown makes sense — if he’s a cornerstone, clearing the roster to let him play every day is a net positive even if the 2026 record lands in the mid-70s.
The Brewers lost Peralta in the trade to the Mets but received Jett Williams (No. 30 overall prospect) and Brandon Sproat. Milwaukee projects at 83 wins with 42% playoff odds — the kind of team that won’t lead the division but could grab a wild card if the pitching development pipeline keeps producing. The Reds are treading water at roughly 74 projected wins.
AL West: Seattle’s Lineup
PECOTA projects the Mariners at 93.6 wins — the best record in the American League. Seattle re-signed Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million deal and acquired Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals in a three-team trade. Those additions join Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Randy Arozarena — five players who made All-Star teams in the past two seasons, all in the same lineup. The Mariners have historically been a team that pitched its way to October relevance and then lost because the bats couldn’t sustain contact against postseason arms. Naylor and Donovan are the front office’s answer to that problem: high-OBP bats who extend at-bats and put pressure on pitching staffs that rely on swing-and-miss.
The Astros lost Valdez but signed Tatsuya Imai from NPB on a three-year, $54 million deal. Imai is 27, a three-time NPB All-Star with a 1.92 ERA in 2025, and brings the kind of pitching pedigree that Houston has historically maximized. Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve are still the lineup. Writing off the Astros is a mistake people make every offseason and regret every October. Houston projects at 84–86 wins, which in a weaker AL West might be enough for a wild card.
The Rangers lost Semien in the Mets trade and hired Skip Schumaker as manager. Texas is in a transitional year, projecting in the high 70s. The Athletics are still building in Las Vegas, and the Angels hired former catcher Kurt Suzuki as manager with Mike Trout’s durability remaining the franchise’s most important unanswered question. The AL West is Seattle’s to lose unless Houston’s history of postseason overperformance extends into the regular season.
The Machine Sees the Zone
The ABS challenge system works like this: human umpires call every pitch. Each team gets two challenges per game. The batter, pitcher, or catcher — not the manager — must challenge within two seconds of the call by tapping their cap or helmet. If the challenge succeeds, the team keeps it. Extra innings grant one additional challenge per frame. The strike zone is individualized per batter — top at 53.5% of height, bottom at 27%, across the standard 17-inch plate width — rendered as a 2D rectangle at the midpoint of home plate.
The most consequential design choice: the ball-strike overlay graphic will not be shown on live broadcasts. MLB is deliberately separating the viewer experience from the umpire experience. Fans won’t see the box. They’ll hear the call, see the challenge, and hear the result. This matters because the overlay graphic has been the primary source of fan anger at umpires for a decade — seeing a pitch clearly inside the box called a ball generates outrage that the human eye, watching the game from field level, would never produce. By removing the overlay from live broadcasts, MLB is asking fans to trust the system without seeing the data in real time. It signals that MLB views ABS as a way to reduce egregious missed calls, not to replace the human element of ball-and-strike calling entirely.
The Coaching Carousel
Nine new managers. Six first-timers. The headline hires tell a story about where baseball thinks leadership comes from now. Tony Vitello going from Tennessee to the Giants is the first time a college baseball coach has been hired directly to manage an MLB team — ever. The hiring signals that San Francisco values program-building and player development culture over major-league coaching experience. Blake Butera, at 33, became the youngest MLB manager since Frank Quilici in 1972 when Washington hired him. Kurt Suzuki in Anaheim and Craig Stammen in San Diego represent the recently-retired-player-to-manager pipeline that baseball has leaned into more heavily in recent years.
The continuity hires are just as telling. Walt Weiss spent eight years as the Braves’ bench coach before being promoted — the kind of succession plan that only works when the organization trusts its own infrastructure. Derek Shelton moving from the Pirates to the Twins brings a manager who knows how to develop young talent, which is exactly what Minnesota’s post-teardown roster needs. And Craig Albernaz in Baltimore is a bet on someone who saw how winning organizations operate from inside Cleveland’s coaching staff.
Players to Watch
Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) is the story of the season before a single regular-season pitch is thrown. The Dodgers signed the full package — pitcher and hitter — and have only had the hitter for 18 months. Ohtani hitting 99 mph this spring and striking out his own teammates is the kind of spring training story that usually gets dismissed as noise. This time it’s not noise. It’s the first evidence that the arm is back, and if the arm is back, the Dodgers are the most talented team baseball has ever assembled on a 26-man roster.
Konnor Griffin (Pirates) is the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball and the player most likely to alter a division race the moment he arrives. Griffin isn’t making the Opening Day roster, but the Pirates are building their 2026 projections around a mid-season call-up. The talent evaluators who have seen him in camp haven’t changed their assessment: franchise-caliber shortstop with an above-average hit tool and plus power. Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) is the prospect most likely to impact Opening Day — he’s trending toward the 26-man roster and brings a profile (.308/.410/.512 in the minors, more walks than strikeouts) that addresses Detroit’s biggest lineup weakness.
Kyle Tucker in Dodger Blue is the free agent whose production will define the offseason’s narrative. If Tucker posts another 5+ WAR season alongside Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman, the Dodgers become the team that spent their way to a historically great roster and had it work. If his production dips in the pressure of a three-peat pursuit, the $60M AAV becomes the story. Bo Bichette’s position change — shortstop to third base — with the Mets is a less-discussed swing factor. Bichette signed for $126 million partly because the Mets believe his bat plays at a corner infield spot where the defensive bar is lower. If the transition is seamless, the Mets’ infield — Bichette at third, Lindor at short, Semien at second — is one of the best in baseball. If Bichette struggles at a new position, the defensive alignment becomes a liability.
Five Bold Predictions
1. The Tigers win the AL Central. PECOTA has them half a game behind the Royals, but the rotation — Skubal, Valdez, Verlander, with depth behind them — is the best in the division by a wide margin. Rotations win divisions over 162 games. The Royals’ 2025 was real, but Detroit’s pitching infrastructure is deeper, and McGonigle’s arrival gives the lineup the contact-and-OBP profile it has lacked.
2. The Mets finish third in the NL East. The variance is too high. Robert’s health, Bichette’s position change, a rotation built around one ace (Peralta) and a collection of back-end starters, and a bullpen anchored by a closer changing teams — too many moving parts need to land simultaneously. The Braves and Phillies have continuity, and continuity beats volatility over a full season more often than it doesn’t.
3. The ABS challenge system produces fewer controversies than expected. The two-second window and the player-only challenge rule will keep the system from dominating broadcasts. Most marginal pitches will go unchallenged because the batter or pitcher won’t react fast enough. The system will quietly correct the worst calls and leave the rest of the game feeling the same. By June, most fans will have stopped thinking about it.
4. The Blue Jays reach the World Series. Guerrero’s playoff performance last October wasn’t a fluke — it was a player entering his prime in the moment when prime-age players historically make the leap from “great season” to “built for October.” Toronto’s lineup depth with Okamoto, the rotation, and Guerrero’s ability to carry a postseason series make them the AL team best built for a short-series tournament.
5. The Cardinals’ teardown produces a 90-win team within three years. Wetherholt at the center, the prospect capital they acquired, and Bloom’s track record of building from the ground up — this rebuild has a clearer blueprint than most. The 2026 record will be ugly. The 2028 record won’t be.
The 2026 season enters spring training with the widest gap between the projected best team and the projected second-best team in modern history. The Dodgers at 103.8 PECOTA wins aren’t just favored — they’re operating on a different plane, with the full version of Ohtani finally arriving alongside Tucker, Betts, and Freeman. But the best story in baseball isn’t in Los Angeles. It’s in the divisions where the margins are razor-thin: the AL East with four near-90-win teams fighting for three playoff spots, the NL East where the Mets’ total roster overhaul will either vindicate Steve Cohen’s spending philosophy or become the most expensive cautionary tale in sports history, and the AL Central where the Tigers and Royals are separated by half a projected win.
This is the season where robot umpires arrive, where nine new managers learn that 162 games exposes every weakness a spring training record conceals, and where the mechanisms underneath the headlines — Tucker’s labor implications, the Cardinals’ deliberate teardown, the Mariners’ attempt to pair elite pitching with actual offense — will matter more than the headlines themselves. The offseason reshuffled everything. Now 162 games will sort it.