WBC 2026
Pool CHIGH
Tokyo Dome
Tokyo, Japan · March 5–9, 2026

The tournament opens in Tokyo with Japan defending at home. South Korea represents the only realistic threat to Japan's pool dominance. Both teams have championship ceiling; only two advance.

Teams

1Japan#1 global
22%
title probability
2South Korea#6 global
8%
title probability
3Australia#11 global
1.5%
title probability
4Czech Republic#17 global
0.3%
title probability
5China#19 global
0.1%
title probability
Key Race

Japan vs South Korea — only 2 advance, both have championship ceiling

Quarterfinal Routing

Pool C winner → QF 4 vs Pool B runner-up. Pool C runner-up → QF 3 vs Pool B winner.

Title probabilities: BSI probability model (200K Monte Carlo simulations) · Pre-tournament baseline · March 4, 2026