Dominican Republic (#2), Venezuela (#4), and Puerto Rico (#5) combine for 37% of championship probability in the BSI model. All three play Pool D Miami. Only two advance. This is where the bracket brutalizes itself before the knockout rounds even start.
Teams
1Dominican Republic#2 global
18%
title probability
2Venezuela#4 global
10%
title probability
3Puerto Rico#5 global
9%
title probability
4Israel#16 global
0.3%
title probability
5Nicaragua#18 global
0.1%
title probability
Key Race
Dominican Republic + Venezuela + Puerto Rico — one of the three doesn't advance
Quarterfinal Routing
Pool D winner → QF 2 vs Pool A runner-up. Pool D runner-up → QF 1 vs Pool A winner.
Title probabilities: BSI probability model (200K Monte Carlo simulations) · Pre-tournament baseline · March 4, 2026